Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.