Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
